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2010 Governor · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 647 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 26%

D+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 26 = 37.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 37.00 − (27.667) = 9.333
  4. Absolute miss = |9.333| = 9.333

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32600, race ID 1298 (538 database).