2010 Senate · NY
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 647 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 67% · Republican 28%
D+39.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.98% · Republican 26.02%
D+38.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 67 − 28 = 39.00
- Actual margin = 63.979 − 26.021 = 37.958
- Signed miss = 39.00 − (37.958) = 1.042
- Absolute miss = |1.042| = 1.042
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32600, race ID 1530 (538 database).