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2010 Senate · CA

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (10.011) = -10.011
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.011| = 10.011

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32621, race ID 1510 (538 database).