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2010 Governor · AR

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 33%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 64.42% · Republican 33.63%

D+30.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 33 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 64.420 − 33.633 = 30.787
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (30.787) = -4.787
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.787| = 4.787

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32624, race ID 1277 (538 database).