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2010 Senate · AR

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 55%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.95% · Republican 57.90%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 55 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.945 − 57.903 = -20.958
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-20.958) = -0.042
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.042| = 0.042

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32624, race ID 1509 (538 database).