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2010 Governor · CT

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 38%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 38 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (-1.737) = 12.737
  4. Absolute miss = |12.737| = 12.737

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32626, race ID 1280 (538 database).