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2010 Senate · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 35%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.98% · Republican 26.02%

D+38.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 35 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.979 − 26.021 = 37.958
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (37.958) = -9.958
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.958| = 9.958

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32631, race ID 1530 (538 database).