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2010 Governor · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 666 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-8.978) = 3.977
  4. Absolute miss = |3.977| = 3.977

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32632, race ID 1301 (538 database).