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2010 House · GA-2

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 836 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.44% · Republican 48.56%

D+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.441 − 48.559 = 2.882
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (2.882) = -4.882
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.882| = 4.882

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32633, race ID 4573 (538 database).