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2010 House · GA-8

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 51%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 52.70%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 51 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.303 − 52.697 = -5.394
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-5.394) = -10.606
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.606| = 10.606

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32633, race ID 4579 (538 database).