2010 Senate · IN
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 53%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.00% · Republican 54.58%
R+14.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 53 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 39.999 − 54.579 = -14.580
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.580) = -3.420
- Absolute miss = |-3.420| = 3.420
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32640, race ID 1520 (538 database).