Skip to content

2010 House · IN-2

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.18% · Republican 46.84%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.178 − 46.839 = 1.339
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (1.339) = 3.661
  4. Absolute miss = |3.661| = 3.661

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32640, race ID 4609 (538 database).