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2010 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 839 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 58%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 58 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-17.442) = -1.558
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.558| = 1.558

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32644, race ID 1534 (538 database).