2010 Governor · CO
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 621 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 9%
D+40.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%
D+39.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 9 = 40.00
- Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
- Signed miss = 40.00 − (39.910) = 0.090
- Absolute miss = |0.090| = 0.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32645, race ID 1279 (538 database).