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2010 Governor · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 39%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.72% · Republican 48.87%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 39 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.722 − 48.871 = -1.149
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.149) = 5.148
  4. Absolute miss = |5.148| = 5.148

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32650, race ID 1281 (538 database).