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2010 Governor · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 601 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 49%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 53.02%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.971 − 53.018 = -10.047
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-10.047) = 0.047
  4. Absolute miss = |0.047| = 0.047

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32653, race ID 1282 (538 database).