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2010 Senate · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 601 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 58%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.00% · Republican 58.31%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 58 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.999 − 58.307 = -19.308
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-19.308) = -4.691
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.691| = 4.691

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32653, race ID 1515 (538 database).