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2010 Senate · SC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 21% · Republican 58%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.65% · Republican 61.48%

R+33.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 21 − 58 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.646 − 61.478 = -33.832
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-33.832) = -3.168
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.168| = 3.168

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32654, race ID 1538 (538 database).