Skip to content

2010 Governor · AZ

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 664 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.47% · Republican 54.33%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.471 − 54.334 = -11.863
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-11.863) = 3.863
  4. Absolute miss = |3.863| = 3.863

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32656, race ID 1276 (538 database).