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2010 Governor · ID

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 52%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.85% · Republican 59.11%

R+26.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 52 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.855 − 59.108 = -26.253
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-26.253) = 4.253
  4. Absolute miss = |4.253| = 4.253

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32661, race ID 1284 (538 database).