2010 Senate · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 702 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 42%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%
D+9.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (9.267) = 2.733
- Absolute miss = |2.733| = 2.733
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32671, race ID 1512 (538 database).