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2010 Senate · CA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 43%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.011) = -1.011
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.011| = 1.011

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32675, race ID 1510 (538 database).