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2010 Senate · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 1,600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 54%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.00% · Republican 54.58%

R+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 54 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.999 − 54.579 = -14.580
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-14.580) = -7.420
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.420| = 7.420

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32681, race ID 1520 (538 database).