2010 Senate · NY
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 672 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 34%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.65% · Republican 28.13%
D+31.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 34 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 59.645 − 28.130 = 31.515
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (31.515) = -8.515
- Absolute miss = |-8.515| = 8.515
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32684, race ID 1531 (538 database).