2010 Senate · PA
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 489 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 48%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 48 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.016) = -5.983
- Absolute miss = |-5.983| = 5.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32685, race ID 1537 (538 database).