Skip to content

2010 Senate · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.40%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.469 − 43.403 = 10.066
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (10.066) = -7.066
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.066| = 7.066

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32689, race ID 1543 (538 database).