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2010 Senate · GA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 59%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.00% · Republican 58.31%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 59 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.999 − 58.307 = -19.308
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-19.308) = -10.691
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.691| = 10.691

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32705, race ID 1515 (538 database).