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2010 Governor · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.002) = -2.998
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.998| = 2.998

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32707, race ID 1299 (538 database).