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2010 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 460 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 48%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 48 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.016) = -5.983
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.983| = 5.983

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32709, race ID 1537 (538 database).