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2010 House · DE-1

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 797 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 36%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.78% · Republican 41.04%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.781 − 41.043 = 15.738
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.738) = 1.262
  4. Absolute miss = |1.262| = 1.262

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32711, race ID 4546 (538 database).