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2010 Senate · CT

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 1,846 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 44%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (9.267) = -1.267
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.267| = 1.267

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 1512 (538 database).