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2010 House · CT-1

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 423 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 38%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.75% · Republican 37.20%

D+20.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.750 − 37.196 = 20.554
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (20.554) = -2.555
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.555| = 2.555

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 4541 (538 database).