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2010 House · CT-2

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 388 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.08% · Republican 38.76%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.084 − 38.763 = 18.321
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.321) = 0.679
  4. Absolute miss = |0.679| = 0.679

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 4542 (538 database).