Skip to content

2010 House · CT-3

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 397 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 37.9%

D+18.1

The certified result

Democrat 60.97% · Republican 33.58%

D+27.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 37.9 = 18.10
  2. Actual margin = 60.973 − 33.584 = 27.389
  3. Signed miss = 18.10 − (27.389) = -9.289
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.289| = 9.289

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 4543 (538 database).