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2010 House · CT-4

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.94% · Republican 46.93%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.943 − 46.934 = 4.009
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (4.009) = -6.009
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.009| = 6.009

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 4544 (538 database).