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2010 Senate · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 637 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-11.479) = 2.478
  4. Absolute miss = |2.478| = 2.478

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32716, race ID 1523 (538 database).