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2010 Governor · NY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 826 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 27%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 27 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (27.667) = 2.333
  4. Absolute miss = |2.333| = 2.333

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32724, race ID 1298 (538 database).