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2010 Senate · NY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 819 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 35%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.98% · Republican 26.02%

D+38.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 35 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.979 − 26.021 = 37.958
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (37.958) = -13.958
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.958| = 13.958

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32724, race ID 1530 (538 database).