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2010 Senate · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 826 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 18% · Republican 42%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 18 − 42 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-28.697) = 4.697
  4. Absolute miss = |4.697| = 4.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32729, race ID 1514 (538 database).