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2010 Governor · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 814 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.77% · Republican 40.88%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.770 − 40.885 = 12.885
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.885) = -3.885
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.885| = 3.885

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32732, race ID 1278 (538 database).