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2010 Senate · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 814 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 45.3%

D+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 45.3 = 3.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 3.30 − (10.011) = -6.711
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.711| = 6.711

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32732, race ID 1510 (538 database).