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2010 Senate · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 580 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 32%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.22% · Republican 39.25%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 32 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.224 − 39.249 = 17.975
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (17.975) = 7.025
  4. Absolute miss = |7.025| = 7.025

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32748, race ID 1536 (538 database).