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2010 House · UT-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 13% · Republican 65%

R+52.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.93% · Republican 69.19%

R+45.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 13 − 65 = -52.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.925 − 69.194 = -45.269
  3. Signed miss = -52.00 − (-45.269) = -6.732
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.732| = 6.732

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32750, race ID 4860 (538 database).