2010 House · UT-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 35%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.49% · Republican 46.06%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 35 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 50.487 − 46.060 = 4.427
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (4.427) = 8.573
- Absolute miss = |8.573| = 8.573
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32750, race ID 4861 (538 database).