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2010 Senate · CO

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 615 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.05% · Republican 46.42%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.050 − 46.422 = 1.628
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (1.628) = -5.628
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.628| = 5.628

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32751, race ID 1511 (538 database).