2010 Senate · PA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 461 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 52%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-2.016) = -4.983
- Absolute miss = |-4.983| = 4.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32752, race ID 1537 (538 database).