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2010 Governor · WI

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 491 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.25%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.478 − 52.246 = -5.768
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.768) = -1.232
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.232| = 1.232

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32758, race ID 1309 (538 database).