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2010 Senate · AZ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 52%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.65% · Republican 58.86%

R+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 52 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.651 − 58.860 = -24.209
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-24.209) = 4.209
  4. Absolute miss = |4.209| = 4.209

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32760, race ID 1508 (538 database).