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2010 Senate · KY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 822 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-11.479) = 3.478
  4. Absolute miss = |3.478| = 3.478

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32766, race ID 1523 (538 database).