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2010 Senate · MO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.5% · Republican 53.6%

R+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 40.63% · Republican 54.23%

R+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.5 − 53.6 = -11.10
  2. Actual margin = 40.626 − 54.229 = -13.603
  3. Signed miss = -11.10 − (-13.603) = 2.503
  4. Absolute miss = |2.503| = 2.503

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32768, race ID 1527 (538 database).